Fifth dry season: Historic drought in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa has experienced its fifth consecutive dry season amid an unprecedented drought in the region.

Millions of people are being affected by a relentless drought in the Horn of Africa which includes Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

There are two main rain seasons in this region, March to May and October to December. The past five of these seasons have been abnormally dry resulting in food shortages and agricultural drought.

Between March and September this year Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya saw 50 to 200 mm less rainfall than average while rainfall deficits from March to May are the worst in history.

An estimated 21 million people face food insecurity while more than 3 million are facing a food shortage emergency. In Somalia an estimated 1.3 million people have abandoned farms and migrated to other areas.

A famine has yet to be declared but only thanks to international assistance providing food and nutrition for those in the worst-hit regions.

Researchers from the University of California’s Climate Hazards Centre highlight La Niña, global warming, and sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean as key contributors to the situation.

La Niña is a natural cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This impacts weather conditions in various regions in differing ways. In eastern Africa it results in high temperatures and a drop in rainfall.

We have seen three successive La Niña events in recent years, however this streak came to an end in 2023 which should help bring more rain to the Horn of Africa.