90% of magma dike solid - Iceland: Chances of eruption falling

Chances of a volcanic eruption in Iceland continue to fall despite continued seismic activity, with 90% of the magmatic dike now believed to have solidified.

After a large fissure appeared through the ground of evacuated Grindavík on November 10, it appeared almost certain that an eruption of Fagradalsfjall would soon follow, with thousands of earthquakes recorded daily.

Now, comments from the University of Iceland are casting doubt. The magma dike created by the activity has now almost completely hardened, two weeks after forming.

While positive for residents of Grindavík keen to return home, this does not mean that the magma is trapped. It is quite possible that an open route remains and will be expanded as more magma accumulates in the area.

Looking at the current dike, the most likely area for an eruption is now in the centre of the route which lays east of the Sýlingarfell mountain, around 4 km away from the town.

In addition to the solidifying of the dike, land uplift at the Svartsengi Power Station has also slowed. If the rate maintains its momentum, the area will return to a ground level equal to that from before the event began.

Last week monitoring equipment in the area used to record seismic activity was hampered by the arrival of poor weather. Strong winds and snow left the sensitive tools unable to accurately track smaller earthquakes.

Now, we also know that the activity itself has indeed dropped, and it was not solely the fault of the weather resulting in lower readings.

Since midnight, around 100 earthquakes have been recorded, now primarily around the most likely eruption site close to Sýlingarfell. This is a greatly reduced number compared to the almost 2,000 recorded in a day on November 17.