Having never seen 40C on a weather chart before, to the figure becoming a reality, will we really see these extreme temperatures again so soon?

Prior to our record-breaking 40.3C heat in England on July 19th, a lone weather model first showed the signs of 40C on June 30th, nearly three weeks out.

One individual ensemble member (out of 21) on a GEFS model run, has already decided to repeat history, showing 40C once again across England, for early August.

The same weather models, the GFS and the GEFS (the ensemble version of the GFS), were the ones that cottoned onto the first 40C, though they were actually showing more extreme values, into the mid-40s C.

This was linked to the model's unrealistically low soil moisture, which was comparable to desert soils. This resulted in a warm-bias, with the same issue likely causing the 40C in the weather model outputs again. Though, ultimately, it wasn't miles off.

That being said, one ensemble output is not a forecast. But it can't necessarily be ignored. Whether we see 40C again or not is still immensely uncertain, but what is certain, is that our climate thresholds are clearly shifting.