An exceptionally strong El Niño may be on the horizon in the Pacific. At the same time, sea temperatures in many parts of the world are above the long-term average.

It is precisely this combination that is considered particularly concerning.

The El Niño climate phenomenon has an additional warming effect on the atmosphere and oceans. Experts are therefore warning not so much about El Niño itself, but rather about its interaction with oceans that are already exceptionally warm, and the long-term warming trend.

The presence of a strong El Niño us likely to lead to droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves becoming more severe in certain regions than in the past.

The Pacific region is particularly affected by these typical impacts. Western South America faces the threat of heavy rainfall, whilst in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Brazil the risk of drought and forest fires is increasing.

The Atlantic also plays an important role in this. El Niño usually weakens the conditions for powerful hurricanes there.

More concerning, however, is the potential trend in global temperatures. New heat records in the coming months cannot be ruled out. How badly Europe will be affected, however, remains to be to be seen.