2023 forecast: Tenth consecutive year at 1C plus?

2022 has been an exceptionally warm year, and depending on how December averages out, could be the warmest year on record. But what about 2023?

The Met Office's annual global temperature forecast suggests that 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record for Planet Earth.

The average global temperature for the year is forecast to be between 1.08C and 1.32C, with a central estimate of 1.20C, above average. That would make 2023 the tenth year running with temperatures at least 1C above pre-industrial levels.

The global temperature has in recent years been influenced by a triple La Niña, which has a temporary cooling effect. However, climate models for 2023 are favouring a return back to neutral, or El Niño, with warmer conditions expected in the tropical Pacific.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, models are giving La Niña a 50% chance of lasting through to March 2023, with the chance of an ENSO-neutral situation increasing beyond then.

This is expected to lead to overall warmer temperatures in 2023, than in 2022. 2022 was still exceptionally warm, with record temperatures hitting 40C for the first time ever in the UK.

This was followed by one of the warmest autumns on record for the UK, but the warmest global year on record so far is 2016, since records began in 1850, which was a year when El Niño helped to boost global temperatures.

Global mean temperatures need to remain below a 1.5C rise since pre-industrial levels, in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.