La Niña watch is in effect, what changes it will bring to our weather

Significant changes in weather across the globe will be possible later this year as our strong El Niño pattern could give way to La Niña.

Our current El Niño pattern is among the strongest on record, but an emerging La Niña is likely around the corner.

Forecasters at the National Weather Service have issued a La Niña watch and project that there is a 55% chance that this pattern will develop by August.

Before we discuss what this changeover from El Niño to La Niña means for our weather, it's essential to understand the difference between these two patterns.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a natural climate pattern that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which can lead to changes in global weather patterns, such as increased rainfall in some areas and droughts in others. In contrast,

La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region, resulting in different atmospheric conditions that can cause opposite effects, such as increased rainfall in some regions and droughts or cooler temperatures in others.

This winter's El Niño has been unusual due to its strength. From November to January, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific were 2°C warmer than average, a threshold that has only been reached six times before (with the last being in 2015-2016).

This threshold indicates that this winter's El Niño has been exceptionally strong, putting it in rare "Super El Niño" territory.

This "Super El Niño" pattern may have contributed to recent deadly fires in South America, a warmer-than-average winter for the U.S.'s northern tier, and the recent flooding in California.

Forecasters believe that this winter's El Niño has peaked and that sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific will rapidly cool over the next several weeks, with now a 79% chance of the Pacific dropping below El Niño status in April. La Niña could be here as soon as this summer or, more likely, by fall.

La Niña is known for encouraging active and destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and promoting drier conditions in the Southwest and southern California.

One possible benefit of La Niña development is that it could help tamper down rapidly rising global temperatures by promoting cooler global conditions, at least temporarily. While a La Niña watch is in effect, it does not guarantee that this pattern will develop.